However, new estimates from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget say the rebate—if structured like COVID-era stimulus—could cost as much as $600 billion, far more than the roughly $100 billion in tariff revenue collected this year through October.
Complicating matters further, the Supreme Court is reviewing whether Trump’s tariff structure is constitutional. Justices heard arguments on Nov. 5. If the Court strikes down the policy, the government could owe billions in refunds to businesses and individuals.
Trump, meanwhile, has been selling the proposal aggressively.
In his Nov. 9 post, he touted soaring 401(k)s, low inflation, record-high markets, and massive incoming revenue, promising that every non-high-income household would receive “at least $2,000.”
During Oval Office remarks on Nov. 10, he doubled down:
“We plan to deliver roughly $2,000 in dividends to middle- and lower-income families,” he said. And the remaining revenue will go toward reducing the national debt.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later reaffirmed the administration’s commitment to making the rebates happen, saying officials are pursuing “every legal option.” Continue reading…
