Oil Price Spikes: Potential increases of $20–$40 per barrel in the short term.
Insurance Premium Hikes: Maritime insurance for tankers in the Gulf could become prohibitively expensive, rerouting global trade around the Cape of Good Hope.
Chapter V: The Role of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
The strike puts the IAEA in a nearly impossible position. As the body responsible for monitoring Iranian compliance with previous agreements, the IAEA must now determine if the strikes caused environmental hazards or if the destruction of monitoring equipment has permanently blinded the international community to Iran’s remaining capabilities.
The “outrageous” nature of the events, as described by Araghchi, suggests that the era of international inspections may be over, replaced by a new era of “kinetic oversight.”
Chapter VI: The Road to the UN Security Council
As world leaders from the European Union, China, and Russia call for “utmost restraint,” the focus shifts to the UN Security Council in New York. The divide is clear:
The U.S. and Allies: Viewing the strike as a necessary measure to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran and bring a decisive end to regional instability.
Russia and China: Likely to view the strike as a violation of sovereignty that undermines the rules-based international order. Continue reading…
