Despite these mounting tensions, it is essential to distinguish between a “state of alert” and a “state of war.” In early 2026, the global system is characterized by a high degree of “managed friction.” Communications channels between the Pentagon and the Kremlin, and between Washington and Beijing, remain open—a crucial safeguard against the miscalculations that led to the catastrophes of the 20th century. Furthermore, the sheer scale of global economic interdependence acts as a powerful, if imperfect, brake on total war. The cost of a major global conflict in the 21st century would not just be measured in lives and territory, but in the total collapse of the digital and financial infrastructure upon which modern civilization depends. Continue reading…
