The regional dynamic is further complicated by the changing nature of non-state actors. Historically, groups aligned with Iran have served as a primary tool of deterrence and influence. However, internal political shifts within countries like Lebanon and Iraq have begun to alter the effectiveness of these proxies. This has forced a strategic debate within Tehran regarding its future regional posture—whether to double down on traditional deterrence or to seek a new form of regional equilibrium. For the United States, the mission remains one of containment and de-escalation, seeking to prevent a localized conflict from drawing in outside powers while attempting to foster a new security architecture that can withstand the region’s inherent volatility. Continue reading…
