Incidents of airspace violations have become a recurring feature of life in the Baltic and Black Sea regions. Russian aircraft have repeatedly tested the response times of air defense systems in Estonia, Poland, and Romania. While these incursions have not yet led to a direct exchange of fire, they represent a dangerous game of brinkmanship where a single pilot’s error or a technical malfunction could trigger a collective defense response under Article 5. In response, frontline states such as Finland, Latvia, and Lithuania have fundamentally reassessed their defensive postures. Some have taken the drastic step of withdrawing from international treaties, such as the anti-landmine convention, to allow for more robust and traditional defensive barriers. This shift toward a “fortress” mentality underscores a growing belief among European leaders that the era of the “peace dividend” is over, replaced by a long-term commitment to deterring a conventional invasion that, while still considered unlikely by most experts, can no longer be dismissed as an impossibility. Continue reading…
