Republicans Strengthen Position in Key Redistricting Struggle

These demographic shifts directly affect presidential elections. After each census, congressional seats—and therefore electoral votes—are reapportioned based on population changes. States that lose population lose electoral influence; states that gain population gain power. When multiple Democratic-leaning states lose even one or two electoral votes simultaneously, the cumulative effect can be significant.

As a result, Democrats may begin future elections with fewer “guaranteed” electoral votes than in past decades.

Meanwhile, many of the states gaining electoral power lean Republican or remain highly competitive. Although Democrats have made gains in metropolitan areas within some fast-growing states, statewide victories—particularly at the presidential level—remain difficult. This creates a structural advantage for Republicans, who may enter elections with a more favorable Electoral College map even when national popular vote margins are close. Continue reading…