Johnson Says House Will Surge in January, Push ‘Aggressive Affordability Agenda’

The poll also examined voter enthusiasm, policy priorities and demographic factors that may influence turnout, though full cross-tabulated results were not publicly released.

Among registered voters surveyed, 45 percent said they would support the Republican candidate in their district, while 41 percent said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, giving Republicans a four-point advantage. When independent “leaners” were included, the margin remained the same, with Republicans at 48 percent and Democrats at 44 percent.

The results mark a slight expansion of the GOP’s advantage compared with September 2025, when Republicans held a narrower 46–45 percent lead including leaners. Republicans have led the generic ballot in most months of 2025, with Democrats posting modest advantages in April and May and the two parties tied at 47 percent each in August.

Although the Napolitan News poll showed Republicans ahead on the generic ballot, Democrats held a slight two-point edge in voter enthusiasm, 50 percent to 48 percent.

The survey found notable differences in enthusiasm within the Republican coalition. Among voters who favor Trump-aligned policies, 43 percent said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting, compared with 22 percent among those who prefer traditional Republican approaches — suggesting a potential motivational gap within the party’s base.

Enthusiasm levels also varied sharply across age groups. Voters 65 and older expressed the highest enthusiasm, with 57 percent saying they were “very enthusiastic.” That figure dropped to 27 percent among voters ages 18–34 and 35–44. Continue reading…