But by 2032, even winning that trio may not be enough. Analysts point out that Democrats would also need to carry smaller swing states — places like Nevada, New Hampshire, and Arizona. Losing even one of those could tilt the race toward Republicans.
For a party that once relied on commanding leads in California and New York to cushion their numbers, the margin for error is disappearing.
Republican Advantages
First, they already dominate much of the South and Sun Belt — regions experiencing the fastest growth. That means even if Republicans lose a key battleground, they may still have multiple routes to 270 electoral votes.
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