Despite these challenges, European policymakers generally agree that a full-scale Russian invasion of NATO territory is unlikely. The more immediate concern lies in limited provocations and ambiguous actions that could test alliance cohesion. Clear communication and reinforced diplomatic channels remain essential to avoid inadvertent escalation.
Middle East: Fragile Ceasefires and Shifting Alliances
The Middle East remains one of the world’s most volatile regions. Intermittent ceasefires and diplomatic negotiations have temporarily paused violence, but underlying tensions persist between Israel, Palestinian factions, and regional powers.
Regional alliances are also shifting. Some non-state actors historically backed by Iran have experienced reduced influence due to local political changes, prompting Tehran to reevaluate its strategic posture. These adjustments reflect a broader recalibration of power and deterrence strategies across the region. Continue reading…