After promising $2,000 for almost all Americans, Trump reveals the timeline for when the payments could be issued.

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rising federal revenue

  • progress toward reducing the national debt

    • Within this larger message, he included a sentence that instantly grabbed national headlines: “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.” He didn’t specify who qualifies as “high income,” nor did he explain how eligibility would be determined, whether the payments would be yearly or one-time, or when exactly the money would be distributed.

    What he did provide was a promise — a bold one — and a claim that tariff revenue would be the primary funding source. This instantly raised questions among economists and policy experts, because tariffs have long been a controversial tool in U.S. economic policy. They can generate revenue, but they can also affect consumer prices, import flows, and trade relationships.

    Yet even critics acknowledge that Trump’s latest tariff expansion has indeed brought in billions of dollars. The question is: Is it enough?

    The Massive Cost: Why Experts Doubt the Numbers Add Up

    The Guardian quickly examined the financial feasibility of a $2,000 payment to almost every American adult. Their analysis identified two enormous challenges. Challenge #1: The Price Tag Economists estimated the overall cost of the proposal, depending on eligibility standards. The numbers were striking:

    • If adults earning under $100,000 qualify → the cost is around $300 billion.

    • If children or additional groups qualify → the cost increases to over $500 billion.

    To put that into perspective, this is more than:

    • the yearly budget of many federal agencies combined

    • the entire defense budget of major countries

    • what the U.S. spends annually on major national programs

    Economist Erica York added clarity: “If the cutoff is $100,000, 150 million adults would qualify, for a cost near $300 billion… Tariffs have raised $90 billion of net revenues compared to Trump’s proposed $300 billion rebate.” That means the revenue generated so far by tariffs is less than one-third of what would be needed. This doesn’t make the plan impossible — but it makes it exceptionally difficult without:

    • increased tariffs

    • supplemental funding

    • or major congressional approval

    And Congress has a history of being divided on direct payments.

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