Tariffs are effectively taxes placed on imported goods. Trump has long insisted that tariffs force foreign countries—particularly China—to pay the U.S. government billions. Critics argue that tariffs function as indirect taxes on American businesses and consumers, raising prices and shifting costs domestically. Supporters believe tariffs create leverage, strengthen American manufacturing, and generate substantial revenue.

In Trump’s view, that revenue is large enough to justify widespread payments to Americans. Economists, however, quickly pointed out a significant problem: The math doesn’t add up. Nonpartisan analysts estimate:

• If every qualifying American received $2,000

• And if the income cutoff is around $100,000

• Approximately 150 million adults would be eligible

• Total cost: around $300 billion minimum

That is nearly three times the total net revenue generated by tariffs so far. Economist Erica York broke it down clearly: “Tariffs have raised approximately $90 billion in net revenues. That is nowhere near enough to fund a $300 billion rebate.” Her conclusion is blunt: Tariff money alone cannot sustain Trump’s dividend plan—unless revenue dramatically increases or additional funding sources are introduced.

The Legal Challenges Threatening the Entire Plan

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